January 19, 2009

Dubya’s Goodbye: Coulda, Shoulda, Woulda, Mighta

I don’t know what bothered me so much about George W. Bush’s farewell the other night.

Maybe it was the new wrinkle of an audience to ensure a standing O and give us all the warm fuzzies at his exit. Sort of like laying a laugh track in a comedy so everyone knows what’s supposed to be funny.

Maybe it was the canned corn – generally reserved for State of the Union addresses – of shipping in heroic citizens as examples of America’s enduring goodness.

But most likely, it wasn’t what was done or said. It was what was left undone – and couldn’t be said. Because Dubya was left picking up the pieces of a coulda, woulda, shoulda, mighta presidency.

Of the 1857 words in 43’s fond farewell, just 182 related to domestic accomplishments, much of it an apologia for adopting a strategy straight out of the Apocalypse Now School of Economics – burning down the free-market system to save it. (“I love the smell of bailouts in the morning.”)

The soon-to-be-former Most Powerful Man in the World played to his strength – America’s waning memory of his leadership in the wake of 9/11. Left unsaid was that this resolute response had once earned Bush 90 percent approval ratings and ultimately, total GOP control of Congress.

How coulda that political capital have been used? Perhaps to cut the Gordian knot of budget politics and push through not just permanent tax cuts, but also far-reaching, freedom-enhancing reform. Instead, any effort at a comprehensive rewrite was punted to the second term – and to a commission that labored mightily to bring forth a mealy-mouthed mishmash of half-measures disowned by the administration before the ink was dry.

Might scrapping a bloated and outdated tax code have deflated the housing bubble and encouraged companies to direct cash into fruitful capacity instead of financial three-card Monte? Coulda.

How shoulda W’s popularity been leveraged? Maybe to put some real muscle behind private Social Security accounts. Privatization may not seem like such a bright idea after the markets’ recent swan dive into the kiddie pool. But that picture shoulda been different too, once trillions of working people’s dollars were pouring into meaningful investments in American industry instead of into federal IOUs financing bike paths and bridges to nowhere.

Shoulda. Except that a modernization of our 1930s-era national retirement strategy was also kicked down the road to 2005 and then abandoned, after his party’s cowardly congressional lions turned tail and the president not only mis-messaged the campaign, but commenced negotiations with himself about payroll tax hikes.

And how woulda our prospects looked different if Bush II’s stratospheric ratings had inspired a top-to-bottom reinvention of government around Americans’ real needs in the 21^st Century?

Instead, we got reelection-driven sops – protectionism for steel and renewed welfare for multimillionaire corporate farmers. A budget-busting new drug entitlement with a pittance of promised consumer-driven health reforms. And No Encroachment Left Behind education mandates without meaningful school choice.

It’s rumored the incoming boss is considering tackling entitlement reform in the same fell swoop as his stimulus package. A potential profile in political courage that woulda been nice to see circa 2001. Woulda.

Coulda, shoulda, woulda – and in the case of Dubya’s best achievements (beyond AIDS relief), mighta. Yes, the president mighta left the world a safer place and the Supreme Court a saner one. But his legacy in the first area is very much in the hands of his successor, and in the second, will almost certainly be undone in the O-ministration.

I’m grateful for George W. Bush’s thankless service. but frustrated that his goodbye evoked a George Costanza legacy. He left us wanting more.