Nathaniel

Shockey

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March 18, 2009

Finding Some Sanity Amidst March Madness

To those of you not living on Lost’s island, you’re probably filling out an NCAA bracket. So let’s take a moment to talk about it.

The first thing you might want to keep in mind is that the selection committee we all love to analyze and berate is smarter than you. In general, people pick too many upsets. In most pools, correctly-predicted upsets accrue more points. But unfortunately, that’s only one reason people pick them.

Ever play ball with someone who likes to take circus shots all the time? He laughs when he misses them, assuming you’ll laugh with him. But then there comes that one golden shot, maybe it’s a hook from the opposing free throw line, and it actually goes in. All of a sudden the guy thinks he’s Lebron James. I hate that guy. The point is that the other reason you pick about 10 upsets per region is because, when one of them is right, you feel like a genius. Meanwhile, your smart friends are applauding you while taking your money.

Would you like to know an even better way to score points than picking scads of upsets? Don’t pick against teams that could very likely make it through the first three rounds. Unless you have a Tonya Harding-esque inside tip on one of the top five seeds, it’s probably better not to pick against them. Will a three or four seed fall in this tourney? Almost certainly. Do you know which one? Probably not.

On a related note, realize that eight and nine seeds are not interchangeable. There are four eights and four nines, which mean there are three teams separating any given eight from a nine. My advice, take a good look at the rules of your particular pool. In poker, it’s called “pot odds.”

First of all, compare the amount of money that stands to be lost in relation to what could be gained. If the host of a particular tourney is taking a third of the money given, you’re in a lousy pool. The other application of “pot odds” in a tourney bracket is to carefully consider how much is gained by picking upsets. Some pools don’t even place higher weight on upset wins. I would say this takes the fun right out of it, but if you’re in one of these brackets, do yourself a favor and just pick the higher seed. But even when an upset pick yields twice the return of a non-upset pick, it’s still usually smarter to pick the higher seed.

So here’s the conclusion. If upset picks are especially weighted in your pool, only pick a few. For the first round, I’d take two nine seeds in the whole bracket, one 10 seed, and maybe two if you feel very strongly, and one 11 seed. You’re only hurting yourself by picking 12s or 13s, and if you actually pick a 14, you’re worse than the guy who routinely takes half-court hook-shots. I don’t care if it’s worth extra points. You look silly, and will almost certainly lose.

Upset picks are more likely in rounds two through four. There is less margin of talent in teams one through 32 than teams 33 through 64 because of auto-bids. Also, predicting latter-round upsets is slightly less risky because, even if you’re wrong, there are fewer rounds to follow in which your lousy pick will hurt you. My advice is to take two five or six seeds to the sweet 16, one or two three seeds to the elite eight and one two seed to the final four. And once again, remember that this is only in a weighted bracket.

Obviously, the smart two seed this year is Memphis. They were extremely close to being a one. Purdue could be an overachiever, and UW could well be an under, as they have been in recent years. The Pac-10 is somewhat of a shadow of its former self. If you have to pick against a six, consider going against UCLA. And concerning three seeds that might reach the elite eight, consider Villanova and Syracuse.

Remember, trust the committee! (Except for Saint Mary’s, which got seriously hosed this year. Arizona, losers of five of their last six, over a 25-6 Saint Mary’s team that just got its star back? Seriously?)

My motto for competition is to take it seriously. Competing is fun, and winning is especially fun. If you’re not going to play for real, then don’t ruin it for those who do. So enjoy this year’s tourney. And keep in mind: It’s up to you to inject some sanity into the madness.

© 2009 North Star Writers Group. May not be republished without permission.

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