Nathaniel

Shockey

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January 28, 2009

Are You Going to Bet Against Roger Federer? Are You Sure?

As I’ve mentioned before, Roger Federer is one of my favorite athletes. I love the way he plays tennis – his powerful, quiet presence on the court. He’s not the biggest, but he plays bigger and out-aces his opponents almost every match. He isn’t quite as quick as Rafael Nadal is, or as Michael Chang once was, and yet his anticipation and reflexes allow him to get to more shots than anyone else. He makes shots other players literally wouldn’t even imagine

One of my favorite parts of his game is the way he mixes velocity, spin and depth, instead of simply crushing the ball to one corner or another. In Federer, tennis has a player who dominates the mental game as much as the physical. This is why, when asked about Federer, other players simply shrug their shoulders, acknowledge that he’s the best and wish they had half the repertoire of shots he does.

Such was the case until about a year ago, when he lost in the semifinals of the Australian Open to Novak Djokovic. This would begin his least dominating season in six years, merely reaching the semis of the Australian Open, losing to Nadal in the finals of the French Open and Wimbledon, and beating Andy Murray in the finals of the U.S. Open – a career year for anyone else, but an off year for Federer.

Federer will not publicly admit that he is losing it, but critics have openly speculated that Nadal is the new king in town, and Federer is preparing to exit stage left. This is aptly represented in Nadal’s number one ranking, ending Federer’s record-setting 238 weeks at the top. Federer is currently number two.

First, Federer is only 27. Pete Sampras won his last Grand Slam when he was in his 30’s. And if you look at Federer, watch the way he moves gracefully around the court, see how hard he still hits the ball, it’s clear that age is not hurting him. So what’s the problem?

I think Pete Sampras is the problem. Federer has stated on several occasions that his goal is to win the most Grand Slams in history. And when he was winning grand slams during a record-setting span of four years, it seemed only natural to just come out and say it. Breaking the record was only a matter of time.

But there’s an old adage in sports that goes something like, “Never look past your next opponent.” And I think that, in a way, Federer was guilty of neglecting the urgency of each individual match facing him. It’s not as though Nadal was the only one beating him. He compiled losses to Djokovic, Andy Roddick, Murray and even a few no-name up-and-comers. Federer’s recent decline was not merely the result of a superstar in Nadal who is finally coming into his own. It was a result of playing a markedly worse brand of tennis. He was hitting far more unforced errors and was no longer making those ridiculous shots with regularity the way he had before.

And the whole thing snowballed. I think Federer got frustrated because he knew he was better than the players who were starting to beat him, players who no longer revered him the way they ought. In 2008, as he was clearly not his usual self, he didn’t look angry. He looked irritated, or even annoyed. Things were off, and ultimately, the joy just wasn’t there anymore.

There were rumors that he had mononucleosis during a large part of the season. But I think the situation was bigger than that. When Federer was 10 grand slams behind the great Pete Sampras, he played with an exuberance that even his ageless maturity and quiet confidence couldn’t hide. But when he finally began to slow down, when he felt more free to talk about his career goal, when the young guns started getting better, he lost the childlike excitement of winning that every player needs in order to stay loose.

Yes, this is mere speculation, but it seems clear that this recent hurdle in Federer’s career had little to do with the physical, and a lot do with the mental.

But it’s 2009 now, and I just stayed up until 4:30 in the morning watching him dismantle the eighth-seeded Argentinean, Juan Martin del Potro. Maybe I’m too sentimental, and maybe I’m falling back into old habits of hero worship, but unless I was mistaken, there were glimpses of the old Federer all over his most recent match.

If I may make a prediction, Federer will break Sampras’s record, and will end up with at least 17 Grand Slams. Once he reaches 15 Grand Slams and gets the history-charged monkey off his back, he’ll loosen up and remind us why he is the best player that has ever played the game.

© 2009 North Star Writers Group. May not be republished without permission.

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