When considering the
relationship between natural resources and democracy, the
conflict in the Middle East immediately comes to mind. But over
the course of the past week, Eastern Europe has been the center
of a political struggle over energy supply.
Although the USSR
disintegrated almost fifteen years ago, former member states are
learning that the price of independence is high today. Four
times as high to be specific. That is the price increase that
Russian state-owned gas provider Gazprom demanded from Ukraine
at the end of 2005. The Russians are stipulating that the
country, which to this point in time paid $50 per 1000 cubic
meters of gas, pay $230. Ukrainian president Viktor Yushchenko
said that the most Ukraine can pay right now is $80, and asked
for a gradual price increase instead of the drastic raise, which
was promptly denied.
The two sides
reached an agreement early Wednesday.
The motivation for
the sudden price hike on the part of the Russians is purely
political. The price of natural resources is one means used by
the Russians to maintain tight rein over its former republics.
In exchange for influence in internal affairs, Russia offers
special protection - and prices - to countries like pro-Russian
Belarus, which pays $46 for 1000 cubic meters. The unspoken rule
is that the more obedient you are, the less you have to pay.
Thus the economic
pressure being exerted should come as no surprise to the
Ukrainians, who clearly defied Russia by voting against a
Russian-backed candidate and for pro-Western, democratic change
in the “Orange Revolution” last March. The gas cutoff comes as a
well-timed warning before the March parliamentary elections
where the current president’s block will once again face the
party of Viktor Yanukovych, the loser of the “Orange Revolution”
election.
But while the stakes
are high (the blocked pipeline is the single largest provider of
gas to Ukraine), Yushchenko’s office has issued a statement
saying that “Ukraine will try to protect itself from economic
blackmail and pressure.”
This may prove to be
more viable than it first seems. The pipeline provides 20
percent of the gas used by Central and Western European nations,
and the consequences are already being felt across Europe. The
gas supply to Hungary has already fallen by 25 percent causing the
government to call on the industrial sector to switch to oil
whenever possible. Poland suffered a 14 percent decrease in supply,
while Austria reported 18 percent.
What was meant to be
a reassertion of Russia’s power may in fact diminish it in the
long run. While Russia was busy cutting off the gas resources to
its neighbor, it was also preparing to preside over the G-8
summit that will take place in St. Petersburg this year. The
government has spent over $35 million showcasing its advances in
education standards, health care and energy security. That last
item on Moscow’s agenda may be hard to push through after
cutting supplies to one of its biggest customers, potentially
causing it serious economic damage.
Russia has been
hoping to raise its prominence as a global energy supplier by
stressing the difference between it and OPEC, which uses energy
for political purposes. Its current dealings with Ukraine
clearly obliterate that strategy.
As U.S. State
Department spokesman Sean McCormack said in a recent statement
on the Ukrainian gas situation, “such an abrupt stop creates
insecurity in the energy sector in the region and raises serious
questions about the use of energy to exert political pressure.”
This fact should not
go unnoticed and should motivate nations like Germany, which has
invested de Vernaiions of dollars into building a direct gas pipeline
from Russia under the Baltic Sea to consider what impact a
similar action may have on the German economy.
Russia’s
dealings with Ukraine expose the attitude of the Russians
toward democratic change and independence, and are an
unmistakable giveaway of the real Russian political agenda.
All democratic nations ought to see this not only as an
economic predicament for Ukraine, but rather as a serious
political power struggle, and act accordingly.
