Dan

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September 11, 2008

Why Obama’s In Big Trouble

Without getting carried away over a momentary post-convention swing in the polls, it’s worth considering why the latest indications are suddenly so troubling for Barack Obama.

As John McCain has surged into the lead in most national polls – actually pulling ahead by 10 points in a Gallup poll of likely voters taken after both conventions were over – let’s note that Obama doesn’t get to go back and hold another convention to counter McCain’s bounce.

He’s going to have to do it with an effective campaign in the final two months. Here’s one pundit’s take on why Obama is in real trouble:

Sarah Palin. Obviously, Palin has been the most dramatic factor in changing the campaign’s dynamics. But it’s not just that she’s so appealing. It’s also the way Obama supporters – both within the campaign and across the Internet – have misplayed their attempts to shoot her down.

When McCain first chose her, the left thought they were getting another Dan Quayle. Liberal columnist Eleanor Clift guffawed that the reaction in newsrooms around the country was laughter. Story after wacky story came out about Palin and her faults – pretty much all of them bogus and quickly demonstrated as such.

People can see what this is. When Palin is attacked – when her daughter is attacked, for God’s sakes – it amounts to one side in a campaign going too far and demonstrating that they’re panicking. It hasn’t reflected well on Obama or his supporters, and he doesn’t seem to know what to do to stop it. Obama is making himself look small by attacking his opponent’s running mate, and not doing so all that effectively either.

There is also this: Remember when Obama went to Europe? Of course you do. The media covered little else for days on end. Remember when McCain went to South America? Of course you don’t. The media paid no attention. Obama’s erstwhile lead in the polls had a lot do with the fact that his campaign got far more coverage that McCain’s did. Palin has changed that dynamic in a big way, and people are figuring out that they actually have two options in this race.

McCain Equals Bush? Don’t Think So. People are not buying the notion that McCain is a clone of George W. Bush, and that’s a big problem for Obama because he hasn’t had much else to say of late. Ad after ad shows the two Republicans side-by-side, arm-in-arm, and the man who vows not to insult our intelligence expects us to believe this makes them identical. What’s more, the left is misreading Bush’s poor approval rating. They think it means the electorate disagrees with Bush on everything. Well then, why is Obama hinting that he might not rescind Bush’s tax cuts? (Because they worked.) Why is he no longer claiming the surge was a failure and Iraq is a disaster? (Because it was a spectacular success and we’re winning.)

Now, trying to beat McCain by running against Bush? That’s a failure.

Two Conventions, Two Attitudes. The Democratic National Convention featured speaker after speaker bemoaning the pain and suffering that is life in America. The Republican National Convention featured an energetic crowd, effective speakers and a positive outlook on the nation’s future – even while both McCain and Palin urged that government needs to change the way it does things. The Sour Pusses vs. the Can-Do Mavericks. Which one do you think was more effective?

No More Speeches. When someone writes words for Obama, puts him in front of a massive crowd and erects a fake Greek temple behind him, he delivers with aplomb. When Obama has to speak extemporaneously, as we learned during the forum at Saddleback Church, he is awful. He often ends up having to come back and explain why he didn’t really mean this or that bizarre thing that he said. Obama has had his last nationally televised speech. Up next are three debates where he doesn’t get to work from a script. McCain excels in such forums. He wanted to have 10 of them. Obama balked. It’s easy to see why. Having to do three will be bad enough for him.

The Experience Thing is Resonating. The message that Obama’s track record is paper thin is getting through to voters. There’s a reason for that. It’s the truth. The selection of Palin merely highlighted Obama’s lack of achievement all the more. People are looking beyond Obama’s stirring speeches and are becoming troubled by the fact that he has few legislative accomplishments – either at the state or federal level – but nonetheless judged himself worthy of the presidency almost the day he arrived in Washington.

It’s not as if McCain has pulled away decisively. The race is still close and Obama could certainly still win. But there were always a lot of inherent weaknesses to his candidacy, and they’re coming into play now. A very smart, effective candidate could mitigate the factors listed above and emerge victorious.

I’m not so sure Obama is all that smart. With every day that goes by, he looks more like he’s in over his head – which given his track record, or lack thereof, is really no surprise.

© 2008 North Star Writers Group. May not be republished without permission.

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