North Star Writers Group

There are 15 months remaining until the American public elects is next president, although a glance at headlines would suggest otherwise. Top stories on the political front this week include Mitt Romney’s GOP straw poll victory in Iowa on Saturday and Rudy Giuliani’s latest foot-in-mouth comment – that he was at Ground Zero at least as much, if not more, than rescue workers in the days following 9/11 – and what such a mistake will do to his campaign. What do these headlines mean? At this point in this exceedingly early election, not much.

Despite South Carolina’s decision to bump their Republican primaries to January 19– a move that will surely lead Iowa and New Hampshire to announce earlier primary dates as well – we are not at the point where every small victory or faux pas will determine the fate of the candidates.

Consider the John Edwards “Hairgate” phenomenon four months ago, now all but forgotten. Barack Obama’s earlier fundraising victory did not alter poll numbers. Mitt Romney’s decision to strap his family dog to the top of his station wagon back in 1983 obviously didn’t create a substantial roadblock for him. By this time next week, some candidate or another will do, say or insinuate something that will cause the media to speculate whether or not their campaign is ruined indefinitely.

Romney’s victory at the Iowa straw poll seems impressive, even significant, at face value, but not when considering the frontrunners weren’t in attendance at all. Yes, Romney’s victory may cause at least one flailing Republican contender to drop out of the race, but such an event would barely make a wave in the grander scheme of the election. Similarly, Giuliani’s comment could make a difference if the primaries were weeks, not months, away. Whether such small details as haircuts or jubilated shouts of victory should carry any real significance is a debatable matter in itself. Pretending that these details matter over a year before the general election is even worse.

Although I’m not prone to using football analogies, one is irresistible here. As someone who grew up in the heart of fan-crazy Steeler country, I understand this jumping-the-gun phenomenon. When Steeler training camp begins in July, the local evening news does at least one story per night on this running back’s potential or that quarterback’s performance and what this could mean for the Steelers’ Super Bowl chances.

Generally, these observations are in no way representative of how the football season will pan out, but nevertheless, fans devour every tidbit as if it were a set-in-stone proclamation. Not that it matters anyway, because by the time playoffs roll around, all past predictions are forgotten in favor of the newest speculations.

Pundits, like Steeler fans, simply cannot wait for the main event, and thus fervently analyze every detail and relate it to victory or defeat. Every pre-election victory, including fundamentally insignificant ones such as the straw polls, are given extensive media attention because everyone wants to be the one to first predict a correct outcome.

Although such speculation is generally harmless, at some point, it becomes ridiculous, even insulting to assume that such trivial matters can influence voters. Aside from that unfortunate group of voters who choose their president based on his drinking buddy criteria, most look at the big picture of candidates’ voting records, planned initiatives and their stance on important issues – not the color of his or her shirt. There is never just one reason a candidate wins or loses the election, so why make it appear to be so?

To use one final football metaphor (perhaps the last of my life), like Steeler fans who are still wounded from last year’s disappointing season, Americans are eager to put the past – the Bush administration – behind them and look to a more promising future. However, we shouldn’t give President Bush a free pass just because his time is almost up. Congress now has the ball on third down and needs to start making some big plays. Okay, that was really the last one. I promise.

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