September 6, 2006

The Economy, Karl

Election Day 2006 is just two months away, yet it is hard to fathom a time when both major political parties have been more out of touch with the American public. The Republicans appear incapable of touting their successes on the economy, explaining to the public that the war in Iraq is indeed part of the global war against Islamic terrorists and securing our borders against the flood of illegal aliens. The Democrats offer no solutions to the issues. Their election year platform of raising the minimum wage and cutting and running from the Iraqi front would wreck our growing economy and invite further terrorist attacks on our homeland. The party that attains majority status in the House, Senate or both will be the party that articulates common sense solutions on the issue that resonates most with the public – the economy.

Certain social and economic issues always seem to touch the electorate’s nerve and increase voter turnout. That is why, for example, the Republicans were successful in 2004 with the strategy of emphasizing morality, particularly opposition to same-sex marriage. A majority of the public believes marriage should be between a man and a woman. Eleven states had same-sex marriage bans on the ballot, voter turnout was higher than expected, and the bans passed in all 11 states. The Republicans in 2004 also connected the dots between the importance of electing a Republican president and placing conservative judges on the Supreme and lower appellate courts who will not legislate morality, but interpret the Constitution.

The Republicans have apparently abandoned the winning strategy of emphasizing issues that impact the electorate’s wallets, their communities and their general sense of morality. Most of the public will agree that national security is the primary responsibility of federal government. Yet, right or wrong, the public is not convinced that the war in Iraq is either a success or part of the entire effort to rid the world of fanatical Islamic terrorists. The administration and congressional Republicans should continue to tout their successes in fighting Islamic terrorists wherever they live, but not to the exclusion of domestic issues. The domestic issue most important to the public this year is the economy. It is also the issue on which Republicans have a stellar record of success.

In an August 31 Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll, 23 percent of respondents cited the economy as the most important issue that will decide their vote in November. Fourteen percent cited the war in Iraq, followed by terrorism at 12 percent. Further, 64 percent of respondents said “problems in the United States” would determine their vote this fall, versus just 17 percent who said “problems around the world” would determine their vote.

Unfortunately for Republicans, the Fox poll also found that respondents who cited the economy as the most important issue are more likely to vote for the Democratic candidate for Congress by 30 percentage points. This finding should embarrass the Bush administration, congressional Republicans and the Republican National Committee (RNC).

The economy is strong and growing by every major economic metric, due to Republican policies that cut rates on income, capital gains, dividends and estate taxes. Gross Domestic Product has grown for 19 consecutive quarters. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the national unemployment rate averaged 4.7 percent in the first half of 2006. The economy has created more than 5.4 million new jobs since August 2003. In 2005, real hourly wages were 1.9 percent higher than in 2000. In other words, virtually every person in the U.S. willing and able to work can find work, and their hourly wages are rising.

Given evidence of a strong and growing economy, and a plurality of voters citing the economy as their most important issue, one would assume that President Bush’s chief political strategist Karl Rove and RNC Chairman Ken Mehlman would make the economy the lynchpin in their strategy to maintain majorities in both congressional chambers. One would be wrong.

A recent New York Times profile on Rove and Mehlman found that their strategy will instead focus on what is called “the two T’s” – terrorism and turnout. This strategy is fundamentally flawed for two reasons.

First, it puts all the proverbial eggs in one basket – the war on terrorism. Only the Republicans are willing to take the steps necessary to prevent another attack on US soil, work in conjunction with our allies in Europe and elsewhere and fight the war on the terrorists’ homeland, not our own. But why limit the election year focus to one issue, particularly one that is not a winning issue for your party?

Second, the strategy is based on fear. The RNC fundraising arm and Republican candidates who subscribe to this strategy will attempt to increase turnout by asking likely Republican voters if they would like to have “House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)” or “Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV)”. What Rove and Mehlman fail to realize, and have failed to realize this entire year, is that conservatives are upset with House and Senate leadership because they have squandered their majority status and failed to enact substantive policy solutions on the domestic issues.

In the Senate, for example, leadership has allowed the Democrats to hold the Senate floor hostage over the mere threat of filibuster on confirming judges. Liberals took control of the floor and passed their amnesty immigration bill. Spending is out of control in both chambers, the majority failed to permanently repeal the estate tax and no serious initiatives were offered this year to restructure Social Security.

It’s the economy, Karl, and it’s your winning issue. Focus on it.