April 2, 2007

With Two Words, Rudy Claims Reagan’s Hallowed Ground

Can two words convince Reagan Republicans that a pro-choice, gun control supporter is their guy for 2008? Given the alternatives, the bet here is that they can, if the two words are “supply side.”

The alleged race among Republicans to claim the Reagan mantle isn’t much of a race. There’s a long ways to go, but to the extent that the embrace of policy positions means anything, Rudy Giuliani appears to have already cornered the market on Reagan authenticity.

Last week Giuliani made the pronouncement many Reagan romantics had longed to hear: He is a supply-sider. That doesn’t make Giuliani the perfect heir to Reagan by a long shot – who can say for sure if he even means it? – but this Reagan fan has a streak of realism similar to that of the man himself.

We’re not going to get a former B-movie actor who waxes eloquently about the rights of the unborn and whose idea of gun control is a steady aim. You get one of those in a lifetime. Be thankful and get on with your life.

But some things are essential, and on most of them, Giuliani had already passed. He embraces America’s role in the world combating terrorism and promoting freedom. He supports the appointment of strict constructionist judges. And nothing in his history suggests that he’s going to be a wimp when dealing with Congress or the media. Check check check.

But until last Wednesday, economic policy remained a mystery. We knew that Giuliani had cut taxes in New York City and turned a deficit into a surplus. Wonderful. But Reaganomics are about the importance of private sector growth. Lower taxes and spending restraint are crucial components, but in order to qualify as a supply-sider, you have to understand that economic growth, not “deficit reduction” or “surpluses,” is the objective. Expanding wealth in the economy fixes all those other problems, even though growth for its own sake is reward enough.

Is Giuliani really a supply-sider? The pivotal indication in the affirmative came when Forbes magazine publisher Steve Forbes declared himself satisfied, endorsed Giuliani and joined his campaign committee.

Forbes is such a committed supply-sider that he once ran for president himself just to make sure supply-side principles were not forgotten by Reagan’s party. I am not a fan of presidential campaigns by people who have never held elective office – even if they are just to make a point – but if I’m looking for the best person to sniff out someone’s supply-side bona fides, Forbes is my pick. Somehow I doubt the two of them sat down and Giuliani simply answered yes to a bunch of questions, leaving Forbes satisfied.

Economic policy is too important to Forbes. I suspect Giuliani probably had to pass some sort of verbal essay test in which he demonstrated that he not only held the right positions, but that he understood why they are right.

It’s entirely possible, of course, that Forbes did some selling of supply-side thinking, and that Giuliani was buying. Troubling? Recent converts are more likely to revert, after all.

But it is not Giuliani’s history to pretend he believes something if he really doesn’t. The man is seeking the nomination of a party that is decidedly anti-abortion, and makes no bones about the fact that he is pro-choice. For the most part, this seems to score him points for honesty more than it creates problems. Why would he abandon that approach on economic policy – especially when it hardly earns you universal praise to embrace supply-side principles?

No other serious Republican candidate has staked out this position. John McCain worries that tax cuts help the rich too much. Mitt Romney implemented a government health care monstrosity in Massachusetts. Others, like Mike Huckabee and Sam Brownback, can be assessed if and when they actually start to register on the Republican radar screen.

But for now, Giuliani is alone in occupying some pretty hallowed Republican ground. If Reaganomics and Rudynomics turn out to be one and the same – and it’s a big deal that Steve Forbes thinks they will – it’s hard to see any scenario, other than some sort of huge scandal, in which Republican primary voters deny Giuliani the nomination. Or why they would want to.