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Stephen
Silver
Read Stephen's bio and previous columns
July 7, 2008
McCain’s Veepstakes:
The Top 15 Contenders
John McCain has several objectives when it comes to his vice
presidential choice. He must address the age issue, most likely choosing
someone younger than himself, while also giving baby boomers and even
younger voters a contemporary on the ticket.
He
must choose someone who garners the support of the conservative
movement, which McCain himself has long had trouble doing. Secondary
considerations include geography, as well as demographic and
biographical factors.
Here are the top 15 candidates, along with their pros and cons and odds
of being picked. For my thoughts on the Democratic veepstakes, see
my column of May 26.
Michael Bloomberg,
Mayor, New York
Pro: Largely respected technocrat, shares McCain’s popularity with
centrists.
Con: No longer a Republican; not likely to be chosen a year after
leaving the GOP.
Odds of Being Picked: 75-1
Sam Brownback, U.S.
Senator, Kansas
Pro: Social conservative; credentials stronger than anyone listed here.
Con: Presidential campaign never took off; too conservative to lure
centrists.
Odds of Being Picked: 40-1
Jeb Bush, Former
Governor, Florida
Pro: Popular ex-governor of a major swing state; almost certainly would
have been top presidential contender this year if he wasn’t . . .
Con: George W. Bush’s brother. Enough said.
Odds of Being Picked: 100-1
Eric Cantor,
Congressman, Virginia
Pro: Rising young star in Congress, Jewish and could lure Jews into the
GOP column.
Con: Little known to most; Republicans likely need him in Congress
Odds of Being Picked: 50-1
Charlie Crist,
Governor, Florida
Pro: Popular current governor of a major swing state; adds youth to the
ticket.
Con: Socially liberal, and single (although he just got engaged); not
nearly conservative enough for movement tastes.
Odds of Being Picked: 75-1
Rudy Giuliani, Former
Mayor, New York
Pro: “America’s Mayor,” close with McCain, nearly 100 percent name
recognition . . .
Con: None of which helped him in his disastrous presidential campaign,
which proved that saying “9/11” over and over again does not a president
make.
Odds of Being Picked: 80-1
Mike Huckabee, Former
Governor, Arkansas
Pro: Drew much of the Christian conservative vote in primaries and won
several states.
Con: Strongly opposed by the business wing of the party.
Odds of Being Picked: 20-1
Bobby Jindal, Governor,
Lousiana
Pro: Exciting young talent who has been proclaimed the future of the GOP
by many observers.
Con: Has been governor of Louisiana for literally less than six months;
picking him would undercut “untested” arguments against Obama.
Odds of Being Picked: 40-1
Joseph Lieberman,
Senator, Connecticut
Pro: Choosing a (sort-of) Democrat would shore up McCain’s bipartisan
credentials, and also help with Jews.
Con: Was already picked as VP once and the ticket failed to win; at a
combined age of 139, McCain/Lieberman would likely make the oldest
presidential ticket ever.
Odds of Being Picked: 10-1
Sarah Palin, Governor,
Alaska
Pro: Popular young governor, who could help McCain with women,
especially disaffected Hillary supporters.
Con: Mother of four, one of whom has special needs, which may make
campaigning difficult in states far from Alaska.
Odds of Being Picked: 25-1
Tim Pawlenty, Governor,
Minnesota
Pro: Young executive, who supported McCain from the beginning and will
preside over his convention in St. Paul.
Con: Unlikely to move Minnesota into the McCain column; a better bet for
the presidential nod in 2012.
Odds of Being Picked 3-1
Rob Portman, Former
Congressman, Ohio
Pro: Experience in Congress as well as the executive branch; from uber-swing
state Ohio.
Con: About 99 Americans out of 100 likely could not place his name.
Odds of Being Picked: 10-1
Condoleezza Rice,
Secretary of State, California
Pro: Still mostly respected, by Bush Administration standards; putting
her on the ticket would take away some of the “historical” vibe from
Obama’s campaign.
Con: Intimately associated with every single Bush foreign policy
failure; has said repeatedly that she does not wish to run for office.
Odds of Being Picked: 70-1
Mitt Romney, Former
Governor, Massachusetts
Pro: Conservative movement favorite, prodigious fundraiser.
Con: He and McCain allegedly hate each other; some members of base have
trouble with the Mormon thing; failed in a big way to connect with
voters in his own run.
Odds of Being Picked: 8-1
Mark Sanford, Governor,
South Carolina
Pro: Executive from a Southern state; likely to sway parts of
conservative movement.
Con: Not especially well-known nationwide.
Odds of Being Picked: 7-1
© 2008
North Star Writers Group. May not be republished without permission.
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