Jamie

Weinstein

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August 18, 2008

John Kasich: The Best VP Choice if McCain Wants to Win

It is crunch time with respect to the vice presidential sweepstakes. With the Democratic Convention beginning next week, Barack Obama could announce his running mate at any moment – in fact, by the time you read this, it is possible he has already done so.

John McCain seems to be – smartly – waiting until Barack Obama drafts his VP before he picks, or at least announces, his guy. I obviously have no idea who it is going to be, but my previous prediction of Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty remains a very likely choice. Unfortunately, it would also be a very wrong choice for many reasons, not least of which is that Pawlenty does not appear to possess the gravitas necessary for the post.

In an article I co-wrote for Roll Call newspaper in 2006 about the GOP's decision to hold their convention in Minneapolis-St. Paul, Sarah Janecek, the publisher of Politics in Minnesota online magazine, attributed the GOP's decision to a strategic choice to focus on the upper Midwest of the country in the 2008 race.

"I think it's the new Minnwisiowa of politics," she said at the time.

What Janecek was referring to is the belief held by some political analysts that Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin would be crucial battleground states in the 2008 presidential race. That is why the Republicans probably chose Minnesota for the Republican Convention, and that is why John McCain may choose Pawlenty as his running mate.

But this analysis no longer seems likely, or at least those three states don't seem too likely to be the crucial states this election cycle. While Iowa went to President Bush in 2004 (barely), it has gone to the Democrats in the previous four presidential elections. McCain is currently down by about six points in Iowa according to the RealClearPolitics poll average. A Republican hasn't won Wisconsin since Ronald Reagan's 49-state landslide in 1984 and Minnesota hasn't gone to a Republican since Richard Nixon's 49-state landslide in 1972! True, Obama is only up by a couple points according to the RealClearPolitics poll average in Minnesota, but if Republicans win these states it will be more likely indicative of a landslide McCain victory than of a close race.

In a close race, McCain needs to win Ohio unless he is able to swing Pennsylvania or Michigan his way – which is far less likely and would also probably be more indicative of a McCain landslide than a close race.

The likely scenario of a close race would have McCain winning all the states Bush won with the probable exception of Iowa (which I think would go to Obama) and with Virginia, Ohio, Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Nevada as the toss-up states at this point. Of the toss-ups, New Hampshire is the only state that Kerry won in 2004. The rest went to Bush the last time around.

So take away Iowa and the toss-ups and McCain has 227 electoral votes of the 270 electoral votes he needs to win the election in November. In order to get 270, he would have to win Ohio with its 20 electoral votes and a combination of the other toss-ups amounting to 23 electoral votes. This is a very winnable scenario, but the point is that the road to victory runs through Ohio.

Now, obviously, the most important quality of a potential vice president is the person's ability to serve as president. Once we get past that, it would be nice if the person could help electorally, most reasonably by helping the ticket win his or her home state.

It would seem prudent to me, then, for McCain to seriously consider an Ohioan as his vice  president understanding the importance of the state. The person I think that would be most qualified and add the most to McCain's ticket is former Ohio congressman and current Fox News host John Kasich.

Kasich was a reform-minded congressman who, like McCain, disdained pork barrel spending. He comes across as a responsible individual who could ably serve as president if the need arose. As Chairman of the House Budget Committee, he held an important leadership post during his tenure in Congress. Furthermore, while being acceptable to all parts of the conservative base, Kasich's personality makes him attractive to independents as well. He appeals to working class folks, the very type of people who McCain seeks to win over in Ohio as well as other parts of the country. As a Fox News host, he already has instant name recognition in certain quarters.

There are other Ohio politicians who are potential VP candidates, most notably former Congressman Rob Portman. But Portman recently served as director of the Office of Management and Budget in the Bush Administration, and McCain needs to add some distance from the president for political purposes. Portman would undermine that strategy simply by the nature of his previous job.

Other commentators have written in favor of Kasich for VP, most notably American Spectator senior editor Quin Hillyer. Hillyer has been closely following the VP sweepstakes and rating potential candidates. In his final survey of the possibilities at the end of July, Hillyer ranked Kasich as the best choice out there for McCain. Additionally, Paul Mirengoff of the influential Powerline blog has also written favorably of Kasich for VP. I agree with them both.

The McCain campaign, of course, would have to carefully vet Kasich to see if there are any problems that would make him unacceptable as VP. If the vetting has not started then it may be too late.

But if John McCain is still undecided on who to pick as his number two, there are worst choices than John Kasich. In fact, there may be no choices better if McCain wants to win in November.

© 2008 North Star Writers Group. May not be republished without permission.

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