Jamie

Weinstein

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March 24, 2008

Iraq Success Boosts John McCain, But Will It Ultimately Burn Him?

On April 11, 2007, Arizona Senator John McCain gave a major speech on the Iraq War at the Virginia Military Institute. When he took the stage at VMI, the Iraq troop surge had yet to be fully implemented.

Some questioned whether McCain's strong and early support for President Bush's surge policy – labeled by some the "McCain Surge" as result of the senator's early advocacy of the tactic – when the American people were becoming dissatisfied with the country's involvement in Iraq would doom his presidential campaign. During the speech, McCain addressed this criticism head on.

"Will this nation's elected leaders make the politically hard but strategically vital decision to give General Petraeus our full support and do what is necessary to succeed in Iraq?" McCain asked. "Or will we decide to take advantage of the public's frustration, accept defeat and hope that whatever the cost to our security, the politics of defeat will work out better for us than our opponents? For my part, I would rather lose a campaign than a war."

The defiant "I would rather lose a campaign than a war" line became an unofficial motto for the McCain campaign. As the Iraq surge went, many suspected, so would McCain's quest for the White House. And since many believed, Democrats and even Republicans, that the Iraq surge was destined for failure, many felt that McCain's campaign was doomed.

As it turned out, the surge has thus far been an astounding success.

American troop deaths in Iraq are down, Iraqi civilian deaths are down, Al Qaeda has lost much of its sanctuary in Iraq and is on the run. There has even been some political progress (though not nearly enough). As the political and media establishment grudgingly came to terms with this staggering turn of events, McCain's fortunes and poll numbers in the contest for the Republican nomination began to rise. It soon became evident that McCain just might be able to win a war and a campaign.

Today, with McCain essentially having secured the Republican nomination, it is hard to believe that as late as December, just several weeks before the Iowa caucus, his poll numbers hovered in the single digits nationally. A CBS/New York Times poll released December 10, 2007 pegged McCain's support at just 7 percent, tied for fourth place with Fred Thompson among the Republican contenders. Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney, respectively, each held a commanding lead over McCain in that poll. The senator has sure come a long way.

Undoubtedly, McCain's phoenix-like rise has much to do with the success of the surge in Iraq and the potential for victory it has brought about. Foreign policy is McCain's strong suit, and if the race for the White House is fought with an emphasis on foreign policy questions, especially within the context of an improving situation in Iraq, he is likely to have the advantage.

But it is hardly clear that foreign policy issues will be the emphasis of the presidential race this fall. Just as McCain has risen to secure the Republican nomination, the mood of the country may be changing. Ironically, if McCain loses this November to the Democratic nominee, it may be due to the same surge policy that helped him secure the Republican nomination, and that many once believed would doom his campaign because of its likelihood of failure. Except instead of its failure, John McCain may become the victim of its tremendous success.

With Iraq increasingly secure, the war has been moved off the front pages of American newspapers. The souring economy is quickly becoming the most salient media issue, and the most important issue for many voters. According to a recent CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll released last week, 42 percent of voters say that the economy is the most important issue to them when determining who to vote for.

When combined, the issues of the "war in Iraq" and "terrorism" garnered 31 percent.

McCain just finished a week-long tour of the Middle East and Europe, meeting with international leaders and evaluating America's strategic position in the world from key countries of interest. The trip also highlighted important foreign policy challenges America still faces, and McCain's experience in dealing with them. This statesman-like journey put McCain in a positive light compared to his Democratic rivals, who are still facing off in a prolonged and increasingly nasty nomination battle. McCain must have been happy to see a Rasmussen tracking poll showing him besting Barack Obama by eight percentage points and Hillary Clinton by six percentage points in potential November match-ups as he returned home from Europe.

But November is still a long ways off. If Iraq continues to be relegated to Page Two because its forward progress and the economy continue to falter, McCain may potentially become the victim of a cruel twist of fate. The Iraq surge that McCain defiantly and boldly championed, which helped propel him to the Republican nomination, may in the end sink him after all – not because of its failure, but instead because of its astounding success.

© 2008 North Star Writers Group. May not be republished without permission.

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