David

Karki

Read David's bio and previous columns here

January 17, 2008

Thank You, Michigan, for Stopping John McCain’s Coronation

The Michigan primary vote is in and Mitt Romney has won a solid, but not huge, victory. This makes three different winners of the first three primaries, very possibly four of four and even five of five should Fred Thompson do well in South Carolina and Rudy Giuliani likewise in Florida.

This Republican presidential nomination is nowhere close to decided, which is without question depressing the mainstream media something awful. Save perhaps for the Romney victory speech, their coverage Tuesday evening had all the enthusiasm and cheerfulness of your average funeral. They were hoping for a second primary victory for John McCain, which in their minds would provide them sufficient justification to forcibly crown McCain the winner, running endless stories of his “unstoppable momentum.”

That plan now has to be scuttled, and Romney's win duly reported. Oh, some will overplay that too, claiming that he went from “nearly dead” to “front-runner status” based on one state. But it won't nearly be the orgy of premature coronation that a McCain victory would have been. The senator's attempt to let the media and a bunch of liberal and independent crossover voters bum-rush him to the Republican presidential nomination has been, at the very least, greatly slowed.

For that, we owe Michigan voters thanks.

But beyond all the immediate horse-race effects, there is a larger story that explains what's going on here and why it's all so meaningless. The fact is that anyone could've predicted these three results – Mike Huckabee in Iowa, McCain in New Hampshire and Romney in Michigan. Each state's populace was ideally demographically suited to each of those candidates. The prominence of evangelicals in Iowa, crossover voting liberals in New Hampshire's open primary and Romney's family history in Michigan (his father was once governor there) means that none of these three states could have come out any other way.

And when you see how slim the margins of victory were for these candidates, in spite of the built-in advantage each had, they are hardly victories to crow over.  Add to that the overall division amongst the five main office-seekers, and one could make a convincing case that the winner was None of the Above.

And yet, unbelievably, the media seems surprised by all this. Perhaps it's disappointment that they cannot try to crown King John I the top Republican based entirely on the support of non-Republicans, as they were undoubtedly so looking forward to. I don't know.

But now we move to South Carolina, the first conservative primary state and the first closed primary. Which means that those who have been dependent, if not thriving, upon non-Republican voters or friendlier liberal ground will not find it nearly so fertile.

Imagine that – actual Republicans and conservatives selecting their party's candidate! (Insert Macaulay Culkin “Home Alone” double cheek-slap facial expression here.)  I mean, it's only their party. What right have they to play any role in deciding whom their standard-bearer should be?

And if things turn out as they very well might in South Carolina and Florida, we'll be staring a good old-fashioned brokered convention in the face, Super Tuesday or no Super Tuesday.

All that front-loading of the primary schedule, and for what? Absolutely nothing. Serves them right, if you ask me.

McCain stopped (or at least significantly slowed), the media and their polls were made to look foolish yet again (three primaries, three misses; or should I say three strikes and they're out?), and a presidential primary season that actually lasts a season – or two or three.

I'll say it again: Thank You, Michigan!

© 2008 North Star Writers Group. May not be republished without permission.

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