Dan

Calabrese

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May 15, 2008

Mississippi Mauling: The Republican Strategy for Congressional Self-Destruction

I am not an expert on campaign strategy, but I know a losing game plan when I see one. The Republican Party’s strategy in a series of special House elections this year has been to tie Democratic candidates to Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi.

How’s that working? Three straight losses, all in congressional districts President Bush carried easily in 2004.

Some strategy.

John McCain may well win the presidential election, but at the congressional and grassroots level, I don’t think I’ve ever seen the GOP in a more severe state of disarray. The worst result yet has come from the northern Mississippi district that was voting to fill the seat of newly appointed Republican U.S. Sen. Roger Wicker, who had won handily in all seven of his own House races in the same district.

But Democrat Travis Childers took the seat, defeating Republican Greg Davis 54 percent to 46 percent. This follows similarly embarrassing losses in Louisiana and Illinois. The Republican strategy, if you can call it that, is to use the poor job performance rating of the Democratic Congress, as well as Obama’s more troublesome associations (Rev. Wright, William Ayers, flag pins, the “bitter” comment, etc.) to provide a rationale for GOP candidates.

It might be time to try something else. This is three losses in three races. Do you know how many House races there are on Election Day? Good grief.

Part of this owes to the clear Democratic advantage in base enthusiasm, which leads to an advantage in fundraising. But there’s something more fundamentally wrong here – and the seeds of it were sown a long, long time ago. In 1984, to be precise.

As a college freshman that year, I volunteered for every Republican campaign in the Kalamazoo, Michigan area – from the Reagan re-election campaign right on down to state House. With Reagan’s popularity in the stratosphere and liberalism in full retreat, Republican congressional candidate Jackie McGregor chose a strategy of putting incumbent Congressman Howard Wolpe on the defensive by labeling him a liberal at every opportunity, and worse, making constant references to what she called the “Carter/Mondale/Wolpe Administration.”

It seemed to be working. Wolpe was defensive about his liberalism, often whining about being so labeled. So McGregor kept it up. Hey, why not? Liberalism was unpopular and he was trying to run from what he was.

It made no difference. Wolpe easily won re-election in a district Reagan carried by a wide margin, then defeated McGregor again in 1986. She faded into political oblivion, which is where she belongs.

I’m sure the negative association game worked for some candidates that year, but Jackie McGregor was such an intellectual lightweight, it was impossible to make the case for why anyone should vote for her. And even though Wolpe’s voting record was far to the left of his district, he was very good at constituent services, and his district wasn’t about to throw him out over a label when the challenger offered a more appealing ideological profile, but little else.

Liberals are every bit as defensive today about how they are labeled. They prefer to be called “progressives” – an indication that they’re not too confident in their own branding. But Republican intoxication with the idea that you can beat liberals simply by labeling them as such, and by associating them with the scary liberal of the day, is not borne out by the results.

Just because the voters have qualms about your opponent does not automatically mean they will like you. The best election strategy for Republicans is to coalesce around a positive agenda of action to improve people’s lives and solve problems.

Republican incumbents are going to get slaughtered in November because the best things they can promise – getting spending under control, enacting a sensible energy policy, fixing Social Security, fixing health care finance – are things they have already failed to do. When all you have left is to talk about flag pins and to demagogue immigration, you’re going to get killed.

The best strategy for a Republican newcomer is probably to run as much against the Republican incumbents as against the Democrats. If you can convince voters that you’ll actually do what your Republican predecessors were too cowardly to do, voters might give you a chance. It’s the only way to stand for a positive agenda without being tarred by your own party’s failures.

Of course, I’m not a political strategist, so don’t take my word for it. But running against Pelosi and Obama isn’t getting the job done. Using the same strategy nationwide in November could result in veto-proof Democratic majorities. Not much fun for President McCain.

© 2008 North Star Writers Group. May not be republished without permission.

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