Candace

Talmadge

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February 11, 2008

After Super Tuesday, the Texas Primary Might Really Matter This Year

More than just the eyes of Texas are upon the Lone Star State’s March 4 primary elections. For the first time in decades, presidential candidates actually have to campaign here instead of just blowing kisses from a distance while collecting their Texas delegates and heading off for the convention.

We’ve sorely missed the mention.

Texans who care about this election stuff can’t wait to see some national political ads as they air for a change, instead of finding them after the fact on the Web or (in the pre-historic era) reading about them in the newspapers.

Texas, in fact, is the biggest prize of all the remaining primaries and caucuses, tantalizing Democratic contenders with a total of 228 delegates and Republicans with 170.

While many observers opine that Arizona Sen. John McCain will sweep the state’s Republican primary now that Mitt Romney has bowed out, the former is not necessarily a shoe-in. Texas is a conservative state that has gone for Republicans in the last seven presidential elections, but conservative Texans are not monolithic. They have their differences. McCain may find that many of this state’s economic ultra-conservatives prefer fellow Texan Ron Paul, while far-righters who care most about social issues latch onto former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.

With Super Tuesday in the rearview mirror, McCain and other Republican bigwigs – including George W. Bush – have started pleading for party unity. Like their fearless leader groveling before the Saudis for more oil, they are begging the traditional Republican media attack dogs (Rush Limbaugh, Ann Coulter, et al) plus the religious right groups (e.g. James Dobson of Focus on the Family) to simmer down now and get with the program.

Fat chance. The preceding modern-day Pharisees have their own programs, relish their bully pulpits, and are not about to put a sock in it. McCain and his camp most likely will have to deal with a sizeable chunk of ideological purists who will cut their own (and the GOP’s) noses off to spite their faces by taking their votes out of action on Nov. 4. They so richly deserve each other.

Just as Republicans have inched toward McCain as their strongest contender in the general election, Democrats in and beyond Texas had better do the same and tap Illinois Sen. Barack Obama. In a theoretical general election match-up, Obama captured 48 percent of the vote and McCain 41 percent, according to a new poll conducted by Time magazine. Replace Obama with New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, and the results are a tie at 46 percent for each.

Right now, Obama is scrambling for position against Hillary Clinton’s established Lone Star State presence and name recognition. He is, however, winning over some Latino activists and Latino voters have become a force in this border state. In recent elections, they helped Democrats regain local offices, such as Dallas County district attorney and sheriff, even though Dallas County had voted overwhelmingly Republican at all office levels since forever. Not anymore.

But where will Texas Latinos put their presidential marbles? If they follow California, they’ll roll to Clinton. With Obama sweeping the Louisiana primary and caucuses in Nebraska, Washington and the Virgin Islands over the weekend, however, Clinton’s margin of victory here may shrivel to the point of non-existence.

Outsized as Texas may be, however, the results here for Democrats could well be just as confusing as the primaries up to this point. So Texas most likely won’t be a factor in the Democratic decision, even if it does finally get a real say in the process.

© 2008 North Star Writers Group. May not be republished without permission.

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