Candace

Talmadge

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January 25, 2008

John Edwards and John McCain: Presidential Artisans

John Edwards is the strongest candidate of the entire 2008 presidential pack, regardless of party affiliation. John McCain is the strongest on the Republican side.

These observations are borne out by a widely ignored CNN poll of 912 registered voters early in December that showed Edwards beating all GOP candidates in a general election by these margins: vs. McCain, 52 to 44 percent; vs. Rudy Giuliani, 53 to 44 percent; vs. Mitt Romney, 59 to 37 percent; and vs. Mike Huckabee, 60 to 35 percent. The poll’s error margin is plus/minus 3 percent.

While Democrats are not likely to choose Edwards as their standard-bearer, Republicans are apt to give McCain the nod.

These observations and predictions come from Kip Parent, CEO of Personalityzone.com, and are based on the David Keirsey personality sorter tests heavily used by many Fortune 1000 companies to assess job candidates.

Keirsey, a clinical psychologist, eschewed the premise of 20^th Century psychology that people are born as “blank slates” molded by some combination of nature/nurture. Instead, Keirsey argued that all of us are hardwired with certain personality traits and, through observation and research, identified four temperaments, each with four subcategories.

The best way to determine a person’s personality type is to take the test. Failing that, Parent bases his candidate classifications on what he can read about candidates away from the campaign trail, where they are likely to be influenced by handlers. Keirsey bases personality classifications on what people do and say more than on what they think.

Using Keirsey, Parent concludes that Edwards, a former personal injury trial attorney, is an Artisan/Performer – the most charismatic of the 16 personality combinations. The South Carolina native shares this personality combination with Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton – both winning candidates and popular presidents.

McCain is an Artisan/Crafter – the most sarcastic of the 16 personalities, but still highly likeable.

Parent says the political parties tend to attract certain types of personalities. The Democratic base is filled with Rationals (up to 10 percent of the entire population) and Idealists (up to 20 percent), while Guardians (up to 45 percent) slightly predominate in the GOP. Artisans (up to 35 percent) tend to be the independent swing voters who decide most general elections.

Parent also says that after the 1964 Republican debacle, in which Lyndon Johnson (Artisan/ Promoter) crushed Barry Goldwater (Rational/Mastermind), the GOP leadership made conscious decisions to change the political lexicon to vilify liberals and to recruit candidates with Artisan appeal (think Reagan).

“Artisans are more likeable than any of the other temperaments,” Parent says.

The resulting problem for Democrats is that the candidates who appeal to their Rational/Idealist base voting in the primaries do not appeal to the population at large.

“The Democrats favor wonkish candidates who have mastered the issues – but wonks don’t do well in general elections,” Parent adds. “People don’t vote according to the issues. They vote for the candidates they personally like. Think of it at the level of voting for high school class president.”

Parent’s rundown on the current presidential field, divided by party and ordered from most to least likely to win the general election within each party:

Democratic

1. John Edwards (Artisan/Performer)
2. Barack Obama (Rational/Mastermind)
3. Hillary Clinton (Rational/Fieldmarshal)

Republican

1. John McCain (Artisan/Crafter)
2. Rudy Giuliani (Guardian/Supervisor)
3. Mitt Romney (Rational/Mastermind)
4. Mike Huckabee (Idealist/Teacher)

Another perhaps surprising finding based on Keirsey temperaments: Candidates who run as populists do better as Republicans than Democrats. Parent says this explains the sudden rise of Huckabee, running as a GOP populist, the success of Reagan, who ran in 1980 as a populist, and the failure of Edwards to gain much traction among the Democratic base with his “two Americas” version of populism.

Clinton, the weakest Democratic candidate according to Parent, is the one whom Republicans would most like to see nominated. “Even though the GOP hates Hillary, if she were a Republican they would love her and embrace her toughness – like a female Newt Gingrich,” Parent says.

Parent offers this final note of advice to all political parties: Never nominate an Idealist. According to Keirsey, this country has elected Artisans 32 percent of the time, Guardians 49 percent, and even a few Rationals at 19 percent, but never an Idealist.

So much for my prospects as an Idealist/Healer.

© 2008 North Star Writers Group. May not be republished without permission.

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