David

Karki

Read Davids bio and previous columns here

December 31, 2007

Pakistan After Benazir Bhutto: No Good Answers

The assassination of former and potentially future Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto has left Pakistan in complete turmoil. Elections were scheduled for Tuesday, January 8, and no one is certain as of this writing whether they will go forward or not. Nor is it clear who the candidates on the ballot will be, much less which of them might win. And then there's the issue of whether President Pervez Musharraf will step aside or even share power no matter the result.

There will also be reverberations from this atrocity felt in the presidential campaign here, as we are about to have the Iowa caucuses this week and the New Hampshire primaries on that same Tuesday next week when Pakistan’s elections are scheduled. The candidates will certainly try to out-pander each other, all claiming to have the magical answer that will instantly make Pakistan all stable and happy.

But anyone who thinks there is an easy way out of this has a terminal case of hubris. And perhaps the most important quality we should be seeking in our presidential candidates is the humility to admit when a good solution is not readily available, along with the willingness to do nothing, rather than doing something counterproductive – if not destructive – merely for the sake of saying you acted.

One could make a strong case that the hubris of the U.S. State Department helped to get Benazir Bhutto killed. There was nothing saying for certain that Pakistan was ready for her return, nor that a political shotgun marriage between her and Musharraf would have worked. Certainly, there is a substantial portion of Pakistan that desires neither democracy nor a female leader. And her return was blatantly provocative to them.

Now then, Bhutto was likely to return regardless of U.S. sentiment, so I suppose I can't blame them for trying to make the best of an ill-advised move they couldn't really prevent. But it sure seems like the whole thing was rushed. And Bhutto paid the ultimate price for it.

Now that she is gone, there isn't really a good answer for where or to whom to turn next. Musharraf is intensely disliked – and now suspected of complicity in Bhutto's assassination – by a large portion of the Pakistani people. I don't think even the U.S. really trusts him anymore. A phone call between Musharraf and President Bush in the immediate aftermath of the assassination lasted less than 10 minutes (after Musharraf initially didn't even answer), and Bush seemed very perturbed during the brief public statement he made thereafter.

Musharraf has also been very soft in cracking down on Al Qaeda in the rugged border regions with Afghanistan, and had gone back on his word to hold free elections and to allow Bhutto on the ballot. He imposed a state of emergency back on November 3, which suspended the Pakistani constitution. He also re-arranged the judiciary. About the only thing going for him is that he's kept Pakistan's nuclear arsenal away from extremists, though even that is hardly comforting when one is so unsure just how deeply extremist sympathizers may have penetrated his regime.

Certainly, it would seem that the Musharraf era is and should be coming to an end. But you can't replace somebody with nobody. Nor can you run even the slightest risk of those nuclear missiles falling into the hands of the Al Qaeda- and Taliban-backed groups.

So the question remains: How does Pakistan hold free and fair elections as soon as possible, in a way that will give legitimacy to the winner, and which the extremists can neither sabotage nor win themselves outright? And how do we get them to confront the jihadists in a way that doesn't backfire?

Benazir Bhutto was willing to risk her life on the heartfelt belief that Islamic extremism had to be squelched and real democracy had to flourish to ensure there could be no fertile ground available for it to grow back within Pakistan. And while I tend to think she was right, I'm not sure who else has her courage such that he or she could to take her place, and guide Pakistan down the rough road from dictatorship-keeping-the-lid-on-total-chaos to something much more stable.

President Bush and his successor are going to have to properly identify this person, and let the people of Pakistan accept him or her at their own pace. It won't be easy, and it will probably seem like it's all going to come crashing down at points along the way, but for the sake of keeping nuclear bombs out of the hands of psychotic terrorists we must try our best.

And more that that, for the sake of the blood of Benazir Bhutto not to have been shed in vain.

© 2007 North Star Writers Group. May not be republished without permission.

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